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Month: September 2017

Iran: Saudi Arabia asked us for help with Houthis

Saudi Arabia calls upon Iran to facilitate negotiations with the Houthi armed group in Yemen, Sputnik Arabic reported. Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, chief adviser to the speaker in the Iranian parliament said Saudi Arabia are “asking for [Iran’s] support to open dialogue with the [Houthis]”, the Iranian news agency reported. “After years of war, Saudi Arabia reached the conclusion that war cannot be a solution to the crises,” Abdollahian said. The Houthi armed group regularly conduct military incursions inside Saudi Arabia and execute rockets across the Saudi southern border. Since March 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a coalition of states in the Yemen civil war and blames Iran for arming the Houthi armed group. Read: Iran using new route to arm Yemen’s Houthis

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Russia’s Arctic Oil Is Off Limits For Private Drillers

On the last day of summer 2017, Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev held a government session dedicated to the development of the country’s territories in the Arctic. After months of speculation and rumors about significant funding cuts to the Arctic development program, the government pledged to invest RUB160 billion (over U.S.$2.75 billion) by 2025 in the development of the Arctic shelf and the socio-economic needs of the local area. The news broke as Russian Deputy Minister of Energy Kirill Molodtsov revealed plans to increase…

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“Dr.Copper”‘s Contango Crushes Economic Hype

We warned two weeks ago that China’s “Bronze Swan” was looming as the crackdown on leverage in the system by Chinese authorities may be forcing unwinds of the CCFDs – thus putting upward pressure on Copper futures (unwinding short positions) and selling physical copper (which would mean procuring the physical metal before passing it on). Those effects were exactly what we had been seeing in the market until the end of August.

And now, it appears, as StockBoardAsset.com notes, exhaustion has started to set in across industry metals…

Barclays has also called the copper rally overhyped, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch said it’s the metal most at risk of a reversal,with the optimism of investors in financial futures disconnected from slow conditions in the physical market.

“When you look at the state of the refined copper market, you certainly question why prices have risen so significantly,” Snowdon said by phone from London.

And finally, bear in mind that the lagged response to China’s credit impulse is about to hit base metals… The rise and fall in China’s credit impulse that has been so highly correlated (on a lagged basis) with copper for the last eight years…

 

And now, as Frik Els of Mining.com explains, Copper futures trading on the Comex market in New York suffered another sharp decline on Wednesday as analysts warn of a likely correction following weeks of speculative buying.

In massive volumes of 2.7 billion pounds in morning trade alone copper for delivery in December slumped to a low of 2.9710 a pound ($6,550 per tonne), down more than 2% from Tuesday’s close to a three-week low.

A week ago copper hit an intra-day high just shy of $3.18 a pound (more than $7,000 a tonne), the highest since September 2014. But disappointment about imports by China,  responsible for some 46% of global consumption of the metal, and receding supply worries saw the rally come to a screeching halt.

The prospect of a weakening renminbi also emerged as factor for the pullback after Chinese policymakers this week relaxed rules to curb speculation against the yuan which had been in place for nearly two years.

A correction on copper markets may also have been overdue as speculative interest have been running ahead of industry fundamentals. Hedge funds built successive record net long positions – bets on rising prices – in recent weeks which according to the latest report totalled the equivalent of more than $9 billion at today’s prices.

Reports at the end of July that China is planning to ban the importation of scrap copper by the end of next year, sparked the rally from copper’s summer lows, but caught many in the industry by surprise.

Investment banks and institutions are now catching up and according to the September survey by FocusEconomics released yesterday eight of the 24 analysts polled upgraded their fourth quarter forecasts compared to projections made the month before.

While no-one downgraded the outlook for copper, consensus forecasts remain well below ruling prices however.

Analysts project that prices will average $5,870 per tonne in Q4 2017 and $5,844 per tonne in Q4 2018. The lowest forecast for Q4 2017 is $4,899 per tonne, while the maximum forecast is $6,674 per tonne. Among the pessimists. Barclays, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan and Macquarie all saw a prices average more than 15% below today’s price going into 2018.

The price forecasts for Q4 2017 were raised for nine metals and minerals, including aluminium, lead and iron ore. Tin was the only exception with economics lowering their price expectations for the rest of the year.

*  *  *

And finally, as Bloomberg details, here’s some more grist for the doubters who scoffed at copper’s rally to a three-year high earlier this month.

The metal for immediate delivery on the London Metal Exchange cost $40.75 less than benchmark three-month futures on Tuesday, the biggest discount since 2009.

That market structure, known ascontango, shows “there’s no part of the world where copper is really scarce,” said Rene van der Kam, Singapore-based managing director of trader Viant Commodities Pte Ltd. He says to expect more losses after a pullback in prices this week.

It appears “Dr.Copper” is about to be relegated to “ignore” status once again.

And why your average joe American should care… the Copper/Gold Ratio is misfiring and more likely to revert back to UST10Y levels. The correlation broke in late August.

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Three Reasons Why Retail Sales Are About To Disappoint Bigly

On Friday the Department of Commerce will report August retail sales, a material report which all else equal, may influence whether the Fed proceeds with its plans to unveil balance sheet tapering in its upcoming FOMC meeting. However, as we discussed …

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HRW: Millions of dollars in Syrian aid missing

Millions of dollars of aid intended for Syrian child refugees in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan have gone missing and multiple governments and agencies have been unable to account for the disappearance, Human Rights Watch said today. The aid money that was sent for the purpose of funding the education and schooling needs of the Syrian children living as refugees in those countries, who number at least 1.6 million. 1.6m Syrian child refugees of school age in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey Lebanon in particular has witnessed less than half of its Syrian refugee children enrol for education and attend classes, partly because they work and partly because the funding is inadequate. Last year there were also significant gaps in funding, leaving […]

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Equifax Bonds Crash As FTC Confirms Investigation Into Massive Hack

While not entirely surprising given the demands from politicians, The Hill reports that The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday announced that it had launched an investigation into the Equifax breach that left sensitive information for 143 million Ame…

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Ethereum (ETHUSD) Testing 61.8% Fib Retrace of 2 Month Upchannel

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Weekly/Daily

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is falling more than 10% today as at the time of writing, after getting rejected Tuesday at the point ETHUSD broke below prior upchannel support (on the daily chart).  Upchannel support breaks tend to be followed by at least one attempt to break higher back into the upchannel, which offer a high probability short setup as these reclaims of prior upchannel support are often fleeting as seen with Tuesday’s rejection.  Further downside may be limited today though as the steeply downsloping daily RSI and Stochastics are deeply oversold, and may soon find a bounce.  ETHUSD is also testing the 61.8% Fib retrace of the 2 month long upchannel, suggesting potential near-term support in the next day or so.  Any bounce off the 61.8% Fib will be increasingly regarded as a dead cat bounce, likely not lasting more than several days into mid next week given the longer term bearish implication of the weekly RSI and Stochastics turning lower from overbought levels, and the weekly MACD negatively crossing.

ETHUSD (Ethereum) Weekly Technical Analysis

 

ETHUSD (Ethereum) Daily Technical Analysis

 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Weekly/Daily

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is falling over 8% today as at the time of writing, after getting rejected Tuesday near the point BTCUSD broke below prior upchannel support (on the daily chart).  Upchannel support breaks (on daily charts) tend to be followed by at least one attempt over a span of days to break higher back into the upchannel.  These bounces tend to offer a high probability short setup as these reclaims of prior upchannel support are often fleeting as seen with Tuesday’s rejection.  Given the steeply downsloping daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD, there is still more downside pressure today, although with BTCUSD testing the 50% Fib retrace of the 2 month long upchannel, near-term support at this 50% Fib should not be ruled out for today or tomorrow.  Any bounce off the 50% Fib will be increasingly regarded as a dead cat bounce, and will likely be shortlived (not lasting more than several days into mid next week) given the longer term bearish implication of the fatigued weekly RSI and Stochastics turning lower from overbought levels, and weekly MACD poised to negatively cross.

 

BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Weekly Technical Analysis

 

BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Daily Technical Analysis

Click here for today’s technical analysis on GBPAUD

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MARKET WATCH: NYMEX crude oil prices gain more than $1/bbl

The US light, sweet crude oil contracts for October and November
jumped more than $1 to each settle above $49/bbl Sept. 13 on the New
York market, the highest in a month. The Brent contract for November
settled above $55/bbl on the London market, it…

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“Everyone’s In The Pool”

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
With the market breaking out to all-time highs, the media has started to once again reach for their party hats as headlines suggest clear sailing for investors ahead.
After all, why not?  We …

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“Super Critical” Coal Shortage Sends India Scrambling For NatGas

Big disappointment in the global natural gas industry this week, with majors Total and Eni coming up largely dry in a much-anticipated well offshore Cyprus. But elsewhere things are turning extremely bullish for natgas. With one of the world’s fastest-emerging energy consumers scrambling to get all the supply it can. India. Local media reported this week that India’s power generators are seeing a sudden surge in natgas buying because of an “acute” shortage in the country’s go-to energy fuel: coal. After enjoying years…

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